Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 1.946480 2.038533 2.136341 2.248695 2.375095 2.514018 2.679854
2025-11-02 1.821632 1.936152 2.062087 2.212543 2.389811 2.595330 2.856943
2025-11-09 1.745309 1.874626 2.020416 2.199804 2.418942 2.684412 3.041884
2025-11-16 1.686595 1.826505 1.987378 2.190135 2.445476 2.766962 3.223026
2025-11-23 1.636154 1.783673 1.956046 2.177692 2.464215 2.837554 3.393659
2025-11-30 1.604909 1.761012 1.946340 2.189513 2.512489 2.949112 3.636318
2025-12-07 1.546617 1.702621 1.889332 2.136890 2.470412 2.930369 3.677186
2025-12-14 1.511884 1.671301 1.864069 2.123115 2.478691 2.982328 3.836169
2025-12-21 1.476656 1.637808 1.834302 2.101276 2.473470 3.012774 3.962793
2025-12-28 1.464049 1.631704 1.838624 2.124382 2.532213 3.144394 4.292249
2026-01-04 1.457306 1.632413 1.851307 2.158913 2.609343 3.313122 4.736549
2026-01-11 1.435150 1.612604 1.836195 2.153863 2.626754 3.385514 5.004299
2026-01-18 1.415700 1.596374 1.826087 2.156605 2.658233 3.489326 5.387800
2026-01-25 1.384248 1.563624 1.792705 2.124399 2.632765 3.489122 5.519495
2026-02-01 1.362569 1.542910 1.774682 2.113303 2.639658 3.548222 5.829271
2026-02-08 1.343143 1.524536 1.759100 2.104846 2.649890 3.614445 6.190657
2026-02-15 1.323850 1.505781 1.742321 2.093729 2.654759 3.670636 6.552937
2026-02-22 1.313459 1.498392 1.740698 2.104758 2.696815 3.806334 7.277332
2026-03-01 1.283179 1.463913 1.700742 2.056636 2.635570 3.721063 7.122195
2026-03-08 1.266285 1.446940 1.684654 2.044079 2.634744 3.763989 7.520405
2026-03-15 1.247596 1.427177 1.664171 2.024065 2.619811 3.774921 7.796701
2026-03-22 1.243444 1.426752 1.670605 2.045365 2.678394 3.956221 9.089268
2026-03-29 1.242769 1.430918 1.683510 2.077116 2.758101 4.202859 11.366741